SQUAD Minilateral Format and Its Role in the Security Architecture of the Asia-Pacific Region

Abstract

This article aims to examine the role and place of SQUAD in the emerging Asia-Pacific security architecture against the backdrop of strategic rivalry between the United States and China. The research methodology incorporates a systems approach, a comparative method for comparing small-lateral formats, and theoretical research methods (analytical, logical, and comparative), as well as applied methods of political science analysis. A forecast of SQUAD’s future development was prepared using expert assessments and extrapolation. The research findings devoted to QUAD, AUKUS, and SQUAD contain the current status of each of them and development prospects for future “specialization” within the framework of the US Indo-Pacific strategy implementation. The discussion presents the author’s assessment of SQUAD as the most likely candidate for transformation into a full-fledged “Asian NATO.” The author also describes the challenges of achieving consensus when increasing membership, and the potential uncertainty of future cooperation in the event of a fundamental shift in priorities by the new US administration led by Donald Trump. In conclusion, the author deduces that each minilateral format in the US Indo-Pacific strategy has its own role and “specialization.” The membership of several states in several minilateral formats simultaneously allows them to be considered a “fan structure,” with the most reliable (from the US perspective) states at the center. The further evolution of such blocks appears possible both toward their potential merger and toward specialization, the author deems the latter path as more apperent.