KEY INCENTIVES AND DISINCENTIVES FOR UZBEKISTAN AND TAJIKISTAN JOINING THE EURASIAN ECONOMIC UNION

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to develop recommendations for optimizing interaction between the EAEU, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, facilitating the effective use of the potential for cooperation. The methodology of the study is based on the use of a systematic approach and comparative analysis in identifying the main incentives and constraints that determine the interest of all parties in expanding the EAEU by Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, as well as possible external influence on relevant decision-making. For this purpose, when preparing the article, official documents, speeches of officials and experts, relevant raw-data and literature have been analyzed, allowing us to assess the dynamics of economic cooperation, labor migration and other factors. The results of the study indicate that, despite the arguments in favor of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan joining the EAEU (expanding markets, eliminating non-tariff barriers, simplifying labor migration procedures), there are serious limitations. These include significant adaptation costs, contradictory trends in increasing migration flows, risks of transit use of new member jurisdictions for trade with third countries. The discussion of the problem confirms that in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan there is also no clear opinion on the expediency of joining the EAEU, which may complicate the adaptation of new members and slow down the dynamics of Eurasian integration. A number of conclusions and recommendations are formulated to optimize interaction between the EAEU with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, facilitating the effective use of cooperation potential.